To continually improve the health of XRP markets globally, we share
regular updates on the state of the market including quarterly sales,
commentary on previous-quarter market developments and Ripple
company-related announcements.
Quarterly Sales
In Q4 2017, market participants purchased $20.1 million directly from XRP II, LLC
1
— our registered and licensed money service business (MSB). These
participants tend to be institutional buyers, and their purchases
typically include restrictions that mitigate the risk of market
instability due to potential subsequent large sales
Additionally, the company sold $71.5 million worth of XRP
programmatically as a small percentage of overall exchange volume. For
Q4, these sales represented 0.075 percent (7.5 basis points) of the
total $95.4 billion
2 traded — a decrease from Q3 2017’s 0.20 percent (20 basis points).
Market Commentary: A Quarter for the Ages
XRP markets ended the year with a statement — one that will likely be
remembered as a defining milestone in XRP’s history. Though the
beginning of the quarter was relatively quiet — with prices trading in a
range between $0.20
3 and $0.30 — XRP began rallying on
December 12 and continued moving upwards throughout the month. It
quickly reached and exceeded dollar parity on December 21. From there it
climbed higher, briefly touching $2.19 on December 30 before retracing
somewhat and finishing the quarter at $1.91. This price appreciation
represents an impressive quarter-over-quarter increase of 887 percent
and a year-over-year gain of 29,631 percent.
Given the price activity, in some respects, this quarter felt like Q2
2017. While XRP saw large percentage gains in the second quarter, its
notional value was the more poignant story in Q4, expanding from
approximately $8 billion at the end of Q3 to $191.0 billion
4
on December 31, making XRP the second most valuable digital asset in the
world. In short, XRP markets had a record-setting quarter.
An Eventful Quarter
Early in the quarter, market attention was focused on issues between
bitcoin and bitcoin cash and the launch of Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(CME) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) bitcoin futures. The
anticipation for futures was particularly distracting, as markets
awaited a pivotal development in the history of the digital asset space.
Since XRP has historically been relatively uncorrelated to BTC or any
other digital asset, it was not entirely surprising that while the rest
of the space found its footing earlier in the quarter, XRP consolidated
instead.
In late Q4, XRP markets began to connect the dots once again. Of particular importance were the
American Express/Santander partnership announcement,
the activation of escrow and
the connection of Korean banks to the Japan Bank Consortium.
The completion of escrow represented the company’s consistent ability
to follow through on a previously announced initiative. Additionally,
while neither the AMEX news nor the Korean bank initiative involved XRP,
these key developments prove that Ripple is gaining customer momentum.
Though it’s early, and today most RippleNet members are adopting
xCurrent, each one of these client milestones increases the probability
that institutions will eventually use XRP and xRapid to take advantage
of more efficient liquidity, just
like Cuallix does today.
As digital asset markets grow and evolve, newer market participants
will continue to look to milestones such as these to gauge XRP’s
potential.
Lastly, the fourth quarter was also fascinating with respect to other
digital assets. There were some great advancements in the space.
Unfortunately, there were also some concerning developments, in
particular, the very public
bitcoin vs. bitcoin cash civil war and concerns around
ether (ETH) and
litecoin (LTC) leadership commitment. This may be where XRP most significantly distinguishes itself going forward.
As established corporations consider leveraging distributed ledgers
and blockchains, especially public incarnations of those technologies,
dispute resolution and commitment will be key. Building pivotal
infrastructure on top of technology that does not have clear governance
is not palatable for large established companies. Also, from
conversations with market participants as well as with possible clients,
it’s clear Ripple’s consistent and steadfast support of XRP is a major
advantage as the payments industry continues to seriously consider it as
an alternative liquidity solution.
Dramatic Volume Increases
Of all the developments in Q4, the dramatic increase in volume likely
had the most impact on XRP’s likelihood of becoming an international
standard for digital-value transfer. In order for XRP to be highly
efficient as a settlement asset for cross-currency transactions, it will
continue to need greater volume and depth of order books. These market
attributes increase its ability to support much larger cross-border
payments and thus increase its utility broadly. Overall, Q4 volumes
averaged more than $807.6 million per day, a 35,341 percent increase
over Q4 2016’s volumes of $2.28 million per day, with much of the volume
growth coming late in the last month of the quarter.
Since December 11, XRP’s volumes averaged $2.77 billion per day as
the price rally progressed in earnest. Of particular importance is the
growth of strategically important XRP/MXN volumes in Mexico, one leg of
the first xRapid corridors. In December, XRP/MXN activity increased by
more than 25x its volumes in September, and at times outpaced BTC/MXN
volumes. We believe this rise in volumes is partly due to additional
market maker activity at Bitso, as well as the rise in speculative
interest.
Lastly, XRP also became available across more than 50 exchanges
globally — which was likely a driver of growth as well. This increased
global reach is the result of Ripple’s continued investment in the XRP
ecosystem and will more easily allow financial institutions to source
liquidity for international payments through XRP going forward.
Korea’s Impact Continues
Though Korean markets continued to be a significant driver of XRP
activity during the quarter, growing geographic diversification of XRP
liquidity lowered KRW market share to 44.8 percent of total Q4 volume.
Interestingly, this retracement of market share didn’t apply to KRW
prices. As XRP advanced in Q4, so did Korea’s premium over USD markets.
At times, prices were as much as 40 percent higher in Korea than the
rest of the world. While it’s still somewhat early to tell, it will be
interesting to see if these premiums develop into a leading or lagging
indicator of market activity going forward.
Towards the end of December, rumors of a Korean government clamp down on the space began circulating. On December 27, the
official news broke.
However, much to the market’s surprise, the impact was muted. In fact,
many markets — XRP included — continued to rally. However, what seemed
like insatiable demand may have some challenges ahead. Given South
Korea’s outsized volume share on digital asset exchanges, a more
restrictive stance there poses a significant market risk.
What’s on the Horizon for Q1 2018
2018 is likely to be a pivotal year for the broader digital asset
markets as a whole, as well as for XRP markets specifically. Q1 will be
key to ensuring XRP’s liquidity eventually becomes more like that of
existing foreign exchange markets and XRP achieves its goal of becoming
the digital standard for international value transfer.
xRapid
On January 11, 2018, we formally announced
a partnership with MoneyGram
— one of the world’s largest money transfer companies — to use xRapid
and XRP for near real-time cross-border payments. In addition, there are
a number of other xRapid deals at various stages of completion in the
pipeline. We’ll look to make those public as they’re signed and our
partners agree to be publicly recognized.
Institutional Hedging and Custody
While customers can use XRP for on-demand liquidity through xRapid,
we want to build the necessary markets infrastructure for eventual
direct usage of XRP by financial institutions. In Q1, we’ll begin work
towards the launch of institutional hedging instruments and custody
solutions. Both of these market components are important to
institutional adoption and thus are important components of our 2018
roadmap.
1XRP II, LLC is licensed to engage in Virtual Currency Business Activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services.
2Volume numbers reference xrpcharts.ripple.com volume data.
3Price data references on-exchange Bitstamp XRP/USD closing 24-hour bar prices.
4XRP total market cap is calculated using total
distributed XRP plus total XRP held by Ripple, including XRP held in
escrow, multiplied by the closing Bitstamp XRP/USD price on 12/31/2017.